With the departure of Christian Horner, it had me thinking. This move by Red Bull has a whole Game of Thrones feel to it and in my opinion has actually been in the works for several years. Here are some of my thoughts (it may be a long one).
Catalyst One
The motions at Red Bull started when founder Deitrich Mateschitz passed away. Mateschitz was not only a good friend of Horner but also his biggest supporter, and why wouldn’t he be? He put Horner in charge and he made them one of the biggest teams on the F1 grid. He stood by Horner for the difficult period after Sebastian Vettel left the team where they floundered for several years and had a very public fall out with the engine supplier Renault. But ultimately they would once again taste victory and success before he Mateschitz passed away. Once Mateschitz passed away others, mainly Helmut Marko smelt an opportunity.
There is no denying the close bond that Marko and Verstappen have forged in F1. It was Markos decision to bring him to the junior Red Bull team, having only completed one season in F3 and the rest as they say is history. After being promoted to the main Red Bull team he went from strength to strength and the relationship between him, his father and Marko only strengthened. We thought at the time this relationship included Christian Horner, but maybe it was all part of the game and a keep your enemy’s closer type of situation.
Catalyst Two
This is where we enter the other party in this saga, Jos Verstappen. I do not know Jos Verstappen and I can only form an opinion of him by what I read, but the narrative is that he is a shady character. Once known as “Jos the Boss”, I always wondered what this meant considering his racing career is largely underwhelming. The stories are well known about the tough upbringing he gave Max in the face of failures combined with the stories of previous domestic abuse; it paints a picture that the bloke is just not very nice. That has come across more than ever over the last couple of years leading up to Horner’s exit, he has pulled no punches and not disguised the fact he wanted Horner out of the team. It is my personal belief that Jos Verstappen sees this as his and Max’s team.
Catalyst Three
Horner’s dismissal comes after a troublesome 2024 fighting against allegations of sexual misconduct, claims that he has twice successfully been vindicated of. I ask myself the question was this the opportunity Marko and Jos were looking for to start sowing the seeds of discontent with the Red Bull board or were the allegations themself all part of their elaborate plot to oust Horner. The more you look into it, the easier it becomes to put the tin foil hat on and buy into the conspiracies. In the age that we live in, it is very rare for someone to come out of a sexual misconduct allegation with your head held high, but Horner, despite the challenges seemed to come out if it on top. He rode the wave of turmoil and gossip and remained at the helm all season.
Catalyst Four
The other part in this game is down to the performance of Red Bull on track. Believe it or not I think the doubts about Red Bulls performance started to come at the back end of 2023. Although they dominated the season, one of the key talking points was the resurgence of McLaren in the second half of the season, this would have undoubtably raised eyebrows. However, McLaren started 2024 off slow and with Max winning the first 4 of 5 races helped paper over some of the cracks, cracks that people within Red Bull will have seen long before we as viewers saw them on track. The writing was on the wall when McLaren upped their game from Miami onwards. Adrian Newey left and the team seemed to flounder with a developmental direction.
Catalyst Five
The fifth catalyst was the all the rumours circulating around that Max was looking to get out of his contract and go to Mercedes. These rumours fuelled by his father and others within the Verstappen camp will have made it very difficult for Horner given the current lack of performance. They always say that no one is bigger than the team and no one is irreplaceable, Red Bull however see it differently and will seemingly do anything to keep Max from leaving. Even if it means they have to produce a car that no one else can drive and end up stifling their ability to develop and push with both cars.
Anyone who knows anything about F1 will know the competitive order ebbs and flows, however when you get strong success it can be very hard to adjust to life when it ends. With the absolute domination Red Bull had in 2023, 2024 must have been a very hard pill to swallow.
Upon leaving Red Bull, Horner addressed the staff with a heartfelt message. I am led to believe most of the employees think very highly of Horner, whilst he is demanding if you give him 100%, he will give you 100% and by all accounts he was a good boss. Since then, there have been several stories leaked about further addresses to staff from Marko where he told the employees they needed to “smile more” and further comments by Oliver Mintzlaff went down like a fart in church.
Final Thoughts
If we combine all of these events as one, it’s very hard to not look at it as some sort of Game of Thrones type story. The timing of some of the events are also too convenient to overlook. Were the misconduct allegations all part of this game to oust Horner? It’s certainly very convenient the way the allegations came to light just before the start of the season. One thing I do think, is that Marko and Verstappen snr were not expecting Horner to come out of it with his job intact. The departure of key staff like Newey and Wheatley did not help Horner’s cause and when they left, I thought it was a matter of time but still Horner fought on. I think Marko and Verstappen snr have continued to try and sow the seeds of discontent with the Red Bull board members and the Thai majority owners who backed Horner last year seem to have had their minds changed. Obviously, all this will not have helped by the fact that Red Bull have fallen down the championship order, but this turn of events has no way been influenced by just the performance in 2025.
It will be interesting to see how Red Bull get on from here, the new Team Principal Laurent Mekies from Racing Bulls was quickly installed, it will be interesting to see if he is merely the puppet and Marko and Verstappen start to pull the strings. I do think it means Max will no longer be on his way out of the team, if he even was in the first place.
Will we see Horner in F1 again? In simple terms, if he wants to Yes. The level of success he has had in building a team from the ground upwards is something unheard of in today’s F1. He can be controversial and outspoken but his record speaks for its self. I personally wonder if he will end up at Cadillac, it’s not too far from where he lives and it’s a team that would cry out for his experience and leadership. Will he want to spend time building a team from the ground up again though?
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